Here we go your last minute Super Bowl prop betting preview, for all you degenerates sweating until the last minutes. All lines via BetOnline
Will Dion Lewis Score a touchdown?
Pick: Yes+170
Solid value on a player who has proven to be able to score in a multitude of ways. Though he had no Touchdowns against the Steelers in the AFC championship, he did have a huge 3 touchdown game against the Texans in the divisional round a week prior.
Total Number of players to have a passing attempt
Pick: Over 2.5 +175
Consistently a fan of this prop every year. By the time the actual game rolls around, these two teams have 18 games worth of film on each other, and two full weeks to prepare and analyze each other. Coaches, usually have some sort of unexpected trick play up their sleeve. A play that they’ve never run, one that could not be prepared for by the opposing team. That alone would be enough for me to like this bet, but then include all of the other ways another person could end up throwing a pass. A quarterback could get injured, even if just for a few plays. If a blowout ensues there could be a late game QB change, not to mention fake field goals or punts. To get a value of +175 for something would so many realistic paths to victory is something I cannot pass up.
Will Matt Ryan throw a first quarter TD pass?
Pick: Yes+130
The Falcons offense is known for coming out hot, even if they don’t score on the first drive, I think Matty Ice will quickly be able to shake off any Super Bowl jitters. Although this takes away the possibility of a rushing TD, I don’t envision it being a heavy part of their offense. Not saying they won’t use Freeman or Coleman, but there will be a lot of check downs and screens as the Falcons force the Patriots linebackers to step up and make plays. Chances are when they score, it will be off the hands of Matt Ryan.
Length of National Anthem
Pick: 2 Minutes and 9 Seconds or less
I love this under. Luke Bryan, if over would be the first male anthem singer in Super Bowl history to go over 2 minutes. That still leaves us with a 9-second buffer. Although throughout his career Luke has been timed with an anthem as high as 2:12, but those were at his own concerts, with no time or media restrictions from television. He has never gone longer than 1:58 at a sporting event, including 1:41 at his only other NFL anthem performance. Take the under and watch Luke deliver a strong non-flashy good old Star spangled banner.
Davonta Freeman over 33. receiving yards.
Pick: Over -110
Freeman has gone over this figure in four straight games and 5 of the past seven, with the only two missing being blowouts. The Falcons are expecting to increase their passing offense to their running backs against the Patriots. I’ll take the over, expecting him to get at least 4-5 catches out of the backfield.
Atalanta First quarter Result?
Pick: Atlanta by 7 points or more +275
Trying not to overthink this one too much, the Falcons are a team who score touchdowns and more then anyone this season by far. They also come out swinging in the first quarter and often overwhelm teams, see the Green Bay Packers. The pats can obviously score too, but if the Falcons get the ball first don’t be surprised to see a 14-7 score after one. Also being that the Over/Under set a record for highest opening Super Bowl line, points should be plentiful. I like the value at near 3 to 1 odds for somethign very plausible.
Goodell Booed
Pick: -450
Nobody likes Goodell, it’s no secret. This line jumped out right away to me, I can’t believe this isn’t at least -1000 minimum. Bet the house on Goodell getting booed. Even more likely with a Patriots win.
Vic Beasley sack
Pick: Over 1/2 sack +140
The Patriots may have a very solid offensive line and Brady does get rid of the ball tremendously quick compared to most quarterbacks. At times this year teams have had trouble just even hitting Brady let alone sacking him. I’m going with the law of large numbers for this one combined with the NFL leader in sacks at +140. This more than likely is going to be a high scoring game with many points, I can easily see Brady dropping back 40 plus times. You figure eventually the Falcons will get to him and who better to do it then Vic Beasley who had 15.5 sacks this year. 15.5 sacks in 16 games, that’s one a game. Take Beasley at +140.
Vic Beasley MVP +2800
Much of what was said above can apply here as well. Beasley has caused mayhem for offensive lines all year and if a defensive player wins it for the Falcons, I can’t see anyone but Beasley winning it. The other player on Atlanta that I see winning it is Matt Ryan being that Julio will probably be somewhat contained with a safety over the top in addition to Malcolm Butler. The value here is tremendous, the best defensive player on either team at +2800 is something you can’t turn down.
Atlanta +3 total game
The underdog has won the Superbowl each of the past five years, not a bad streak. Shocking at first but upsets really aren’t uncommon in Super Bowls. It’s no secret to anyone that the Falcons are number one in scoring and the Patriots have given up the least amount of points. But I just don’t think anyone can slow down Matt Ryan at this point and the Falcons offense is clearly more dominant than the Patriots defense in my eyes. Ryan has thrown a touchdown to 13 different receivers, an NFL record. The game could very well come down to the last possession, why not take the points and the number one score offense in the NFL.
Under 58.5 Total game
Although we do think it will be a high scoring game, 58.5 is really, really high for an over/under. Two great quarterbacks who can score the ball is lethal but something tells me maybe one team goes over 30 but not both. It will be close, but I can see a 31-27 game and the under just barely covering. The Falcons score quick and will almost undoubtedly rely on their passing attack while spreading the ball around to their backs and tight ends. The Patriots may look to slow the game down with the short passing game and power running game. Teams usually like to keep the ball away from Brady, the Patriots may do just that and attempt to limit the Falcons time of possession. Being that this is the highest total the Super Bowl has ever seen and points are far from guaranteed I like the under here.
Will Lady Gaga say “Trump” at any point?
Pick: No -120
Though she has been outspoken against the President recently when asked if she would use this platform to address the President at all she claimed she would not mention him. Being that she said this using logic and reason we can assume that she’s not going to, if she does she’ll just look hypocritical.
